Risk Management

The Risk Equation

Risk = (Probability of Falling) x (Consequence of Falling).

High Probability, Low Consequence

• Scenario: Bouldering near the ground or right above a piton.
• Aava: Low stamina, hard move.
• Action: GO FOR IT. If you fall, you lose 1m of progress. No big deal.

Low Probability, High Consequence

• Scenario: Easy terrain, but 20m above the last piton ("Run out").
• Aava: Full stamina.
• Action: FOCUS. Even though it's easy, a slip here is fatal or catastrophic. Place a piton if you have doubts.

High Probability, High Consequence

• Scenario: Hard move (Crux), low stamina, no recent piton.
• Action: RETREAT. Do not attempt. Climb down, place a piton, or rest. Attempting this is a "Death Warp" (you will likely die/reload).

Weather Factors

• Rain: Multiplies "Probability of Falling" by 2x.
• Storm: Multiplies "Consequence" (Stamina drain makes recovery after fall harder).
• Rule: If caught in a storm in a "High Consequence" zone, setup Bivouac immediately.

Health vs Grip

• Health (Red Bar): Can result in death if 0. Hard to recover.
• Grip (Stamina Cap): Reduced by "Pump".
• Decision: It is better to take some Health damage (scraping knee) than to fall. But keep your Grip health high by taping hands at camp.